Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 0.8%

30-day trend

Analysis

This represents a 72% probability that U.S. retail sales will increase month-over-month by at least 0.0% in June 2026. The current assessment reflects expectations that retail activity will show positive or flat growth, though the significant drop-off in contract prices at higher thresholds (59% at +0.2%, 28% at +0.6%) indicates substantial uncertainty about the magnitude. The probability is primarily driven by seasonal patterns in consumer spending and recent economic conditions. The key driver is the June retail sales report from the U.S. Census Bureau, typically released in early August, which will provide definitive data on actual month-over-month change and resolve this market.

• ›Seasonal strength in June typically supports positive retail sales growth before the summer slowdown
• ›Recent Consumer Price Index and wage growth trends directly influence consumer purchasing power and spending patterns
• ›The contract price structure shows markets assign only 3% probability to growth exceeding 1.2%, suggesting consensus expects modest gains rather than strong expansion
• ›June 2026 month-over-month comparisons depend on June 2025 baseline levels and any calendar-specific retail events
• ›The Census Bureau's August retail sales release will provide the actual data point determining whether outcomes above 0.0%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.6%, and 1.2% are met

What moved the line

• Jun 19Above 0.2%↑20pp38→58¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19Above 0.4%↑9pp35→44¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19Above 0.6%↑9pp20→29¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 19Above 0.0%↑5pp67→72¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 20Above 0.2%↑3pp58→61¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds