Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 1.0%?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 1.0%?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 21, 2026. This market is pricing in a 73% probability of above-1.0% retail sales growth for March 2026, but the extraordinarily high implied yields (3,357% for Yes, 20,122% for No) signal severe liquidity constraints with only $1,542.82 in open interest and $167.26 in 24-hour volume.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a 73% probability of above-1.0% retail sales growth for March 2026, but the extraordinarily high implied yields (3,357% for Yes, 20,122% for No) signal severe liquidity constraints with only $1,542.82 in open interest and $167.26 in 24-hour volume. The price has surged 10 cents over seven days amid elevated realized volatility of 402%, suggesting either new information arrival (2.2 events per hour) or positioning ahead of the March data release scheduled just 4 days before market close on 4/21/2026.
Resolution rules
If United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 is above 1.0%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSRETAIL-26APR21-T1.0 yes 100