Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 1.2%?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 be above 1.2%?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing April 21, 2026. This market is experiencing extreme annualization artifacts with implied yields exceeding 6,400% on the Yes side, a direct result of the 4-day expiration window creating mathematically inflated returns rather than reflecting genuine edge.
Analysis
This market is experiencing extreme annualization artifacts with implied yields exceeding 6,400% on the Yes side, a direct result of the 4-day expiration window creating mathematically inflated returns rather than reflecting genuine edge. The price has surged 460% over seven days from 10¢ to 56¢, suggesting either new information arrival or late positioning ahead of the April 21 resolution, though the thin $65.72 daily volume and modest $2,985.83 open interest indicate low liquidity that could amplify price swings on marginal order flow. With realized volatility at 123% and the actual data release likely imminent, this market is pricing in substantial uncertainty around whether March retail sales will exceed the 1.2% month-over-month threshold.
Resolution rules
If United States retail sales MoM for March 2026 is above 1.2%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXUSRETAIL-26APR21-T1.2 yes 100