Will JD Vance announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?
Prediction markets currently give a 71% probability that Will JD Vance announce a run for President of the United States before Oct 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 71¢ on Kalshi, closing October 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 533-day timeframe, suggesting minimal trader interest in a JD Vance 2028 presidential announcement bet.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a 533-day timeframe, suggesting minimal trader interest in a JD Vance 2028 presidential announcement bet. The 0¢ price contradicts the substantial 32.3% implied yield on the Yes side, indicating the market may be mispriced or simply inactive—traders are either heavily discounting the announcement probability or avoiding the market entirely due to lack of liquidity. The wide 5¢ spread and neutral regime score further suggest this is a dead market that would require significant capital to move meaningfully.
Resolution rules
If JD Vance has announced that they will run for President of the United States in 2028 before Oct 1, 2027, including running for the nomination of any political party to contest that office, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVANCERUN-28-27OCT01 yes 100