Will Sean Orr win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?
Prediction markets currently give a 9% probability that Will Sean Orr win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?. This contract trades at 9¢ on Kalshi, closing October 17, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest despite a massive 1597% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 9¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a thin, potentially stale quote.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest despite a massive 1597% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 9¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus but rather a thin, potentially stale quote. The 7¢ bid-ask spread is notably wide relative to the 9¢ midpoint, and the market has seen no price movement over seven days, indicating minimal trading activity and high execution risk for any position. With 549 days until expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, this contract carries substantial uncertainty around the actual 2026 election timing and candidate viability, making the extreme yield figures potentially misleading given the illiquidity constraints.
Resolution rules
If Sean Orr wins the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVANCOUVERMAYOR-26OCT17-SORR yes 100