Will John Hickenlooper vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
Prediction markets currently give a 23% probability that Will John Hickenlooper vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?. This contract trades at 23¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing in a heavily bearish view of Hickenlooper's likelihood to support the next Fed Chair nominee at just 23¢, though the extremely thin $3 daily volume and wide 4¢ spread suggest low conviction and potential mispricing.
Analysis
This market is pricing in a heavily bearish view of Hickenlooper's likelihood to support the next Fed Chair nominee at just 23¢, though the extremely thin $3 daily volume and wide 4¢ spread suggest low conviction and potential mispricing. The Yes side's astronomical 562.4% implied yield reflects the market's skepticism, but with only $1,588 in open interest and 260 days to expiry, this appears to be a niche position with minimal liquidity that could experience sharp repricing if Hickenlooper's voting intentions become clearer. The modest 7-day price movement (19¢ to 20¢) and neutral regime score indicate the market hasn't yet reacted to significant new information about the nomination timeline or the senator's positioning.
Resolution rules
If John Hickenlooper votes Yea for the next Fed Chair nominee before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVOTEFEDCHAIR-27-JHIC yes 100