Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?
Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will Lisa Murkowski vote for the next Fed Chair nominee?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,981 open interest, suggesting the 85¢ price may not reflect true consensus.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $1,981 open interest, suggesting the 85¢ price may not reflect true consensus. The asymmetric implied yields—24.8% for Yes versus 796.7% for No—indicate severe mispricing, with the No side offering outsized returns that typically signal either deep uncertainty or a liquidity trap rather than genuine market conviction. The recent 4¢ price decline over seven days combined with a wide 6¢ spread and elevated cliff risk (6/10) suggests this contract lacks sufficient trading depth to be reliable for directional positioning.
Also on polymarket at 63¢(Δ +22¢)
Resolution rules
If Lisa Murkowski votes Yea for the next Fed Chair nominee before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVOTEFEDCHAIR-27-LMUR yes 100