Will exactly 8 justices vote for the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will exactly 8 justices vote for the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $201 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Analysis
This market exhibits extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $201 open interest, making the 4¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The astronomical 8225% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the ultra-low probability pricing rather than genuine market conviction, and the 24 Cliff Risk Index suggests significant binary outcome concentration. With 107 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this appears to be a niche Supreme Court prediction with minimal market participation, making it suitable only for informed specialists willing to accept wide spreads and potential difficulty exiting positions.
Resolution rules
If exactly 8 justices vote in favor of the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVRASCOTUSVOTE-26-8 yes 100