Will exactly 9 justices vote for the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will exactly 9 justices vote for the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing August 1, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,002 open interest, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,002 open interest, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The astronomical 3937.7% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the combination of low probability and thin liquidity rather than genuine market conviction, while the 4¢ spread is notably wide relative to the 8¢ price. The sharp 167% price increase over seven days (3¢ to 8¢) warrants caution, as such movements in low-liquidity markets can reflect minimal actual trading rather than meaningful information about the case outcome.
Resolution rules
If exactly 9 justices vote in favor of the petitioner in Louisiana v. Callais, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXVRASCOTUSVOTE-26-9 yes 100