Will Harry Kane be in the England World Cup final squad?
Prediction markets currently give a 99% probability that Will Harry Kane be in the England World Cup final squad?. This contract trades at 99¢ on Kalshi, closing June 18, 2026. This market is pricing Kane's inclusion at near-certainty (99¢), but the extremely thin liquidity ($1 open interest, $1 daily volume) and wide 9¢ spread make this price potentially unreliable rather than informative.
Analysis
This market is pricing Kane's inclusion at near-certainty (99¢), but the extremely thin liquidity ($1 open interest, $1 daily volume) and wide 9¢ spread make this price potentially unreliable rather than informative. The asymmetric implied yields—6,124.9% on the No side versus 59.9% on the Yes side—reflect the illiquidity trap where a small No position would require massive capital to move the price, creating a distorted risk picture rather than genuine market conviction. With 60 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, this appears to be a dead market that should be avoided until meaningful liquidity develops.
Resolution rules
If Harry Kane is selected for the final squad for the England national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWCSQUAD-26ENG-HKAN yes 100