Will Jordan Henderson be in the England World Cup final squad?
Prediction markets currently give a 65% probability that Will Jordan Henderson be in the England World Cup final squad?. This contract trades at 65¢ on Kalshi, closing June 18, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2.73 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 65¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 10¢ spread.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $2.73 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 65¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 10¢ spread. The 331% implied yield on the Yes side suggests significant underpricing relative to Henderson's actual selection odds, though the astronomical 1141.6% No yield indicates the market may be pricing in near-certainty of his inclusion rather than reflecting genuine uncertainty. With 59 days to expiry and a low Cliff Risk Index of 2, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced market.
Resolution rules
If Jordan Henderson is selected for the final squad for the England national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWCSQUAD-26ENG-JHEN yes 100