What is the current probability for "Will Dani Olmo be in the Spain World Cup final squad?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 85¢ (85% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on June 16, 2026. 55 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Dani Olmo be in the Spain World Cup final squad?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 164.9% and 2638.8% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Dani Olmo be in the Spain World Cup final squad?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Dani Olmo be in the Spain World Cup final squad?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 85% probability that Will Dani Olmo be in the Spain World Cup final squad?. This contract trades at 85¢ on Kalshi, closing June 16, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 1253% risk-adjusted implied yield on the No side.

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85¢mid

Bid/Ask 80/90¢·Spread 10¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Jun 16, 2026·55d remaining

KXWCSQUAD-26ESP-DOLM

Analysis

2d ago

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 1253% risk-adjusted implied yield on the No side. The 10¢ spread is unusually wide relative to the price, and the 156.6% Yes yield suggests meaningful mispricing if Olmo has any realistic chance of World Cup selection—a 26-year-old midfielder for a competitive Spain squad should carry non-trivial probability. With 58 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, this appears to be a dead market awaiting either liquidity injection or resolution.

Resolution rules

If Dani Olmo is selected for the final squad for the Spain national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 164.9%

IY (No) 2638.8%

Adj IY 1319%

CRI 4

Overround 23.0%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	164.9%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	2638.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1319%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	23.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

10¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:13:09 PM

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXWCSQUAD-26ESP-DOLM yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →