Will Rayan Cherki be in the France World Cup final squad?
Prediction markets currently give a 90% probability that Will Rayan Cherki be in the France World Cup final squad?. This contract trades at 90¢ on Kalshi, closing June 17, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction, with zero volume and open interest despite a dramatic 7-day price surge from 1¢ to 85¢ that contradicts the current 0¢ display—suggesting a data lag or settlement issue.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity and pricing dysfunction, with zero volume and open interest despite a dramatic 7-day price surge from 1¢ to 85¢ that contradicts the current 0¢ display—suggesting a data lag or settlement issue. The 10¢ spread and absurd 3500% implied yield on "No" indicate virtually no market participants are willing to take either side at these prices, making the 109% yield on "Yes" unreliable as a true probability estimate. With 59 days to the 2026 World Cup squad announcement and a Cliff Risk Index of 6, this appears to be a dead or malfunctioning market that should not be traded.
Resolution rules
If Rayan Cherki is selected for the final squad for the France national team for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWCSQUAD-26FRA-RCHE yes 100