Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 83.00 and 83.99 on Apr 24, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 83.00 and 83.99 on Apr 24, 2026?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 10% Yes price implying a 100,000% annualized yield, suggesting the market is severely undervaluing a $1 wide price band for WTI in April 2026.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 10% Yes price implying a 100,000% annualized yield, suggesting the market is severely undervaluing a $1 wide price band for WTI in April 2026. With only $172 in 24-hour volume and a 7-cent spread on a 10-cent contract, liquidity is critically thin and the pricing may not reflect genuine probability estimates. The Cliff Risk Index of 32 indicates meaningful tail risk, and given WTI's historical volatility, a $1 settlement range over a 2-year horizon appears substantially more likely than the 10% implied probability suggests.
Resolution rules
If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 24, 2026 is between $83.00 and 83.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWTIW-26APR24-B83.5 yes 100