Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 84.00 and 84.99 on Apr 24, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 84.00 and 84.99 on Apr 24, 2026?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This extremely illiquid market shows a 3% Yes price with an absurd 100,000% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing driven by minimal trading activity ($84 in 24h volume).
Analysis
This extremely illiquid market shows a 3% Yes price with an absurd 100,000% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing driven by minimal trading activity ($84 in 24h volume). The price has doubled from 2¢ to 5¢ over seven days with only $84 open interest, indicating this narrow $84.00-$84.99 WTI band is being treated as a lottery ticket rather than a serious probability assessment. With just 7 days to expiry and a 19 Cliff Risk Index, the extreme yield reflects illiquidity premium rather than genuine market conviction about oil settling in this specific one-cent range.
Resolution rules
If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 24, 2026 is between $84.00 and 84.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWTIW-26APR24-B84.5 yes 100