Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will the WTI front-month settle oil price be Between 85.00 and 85.99 on Apr 24, 2026?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Kalshi, closing April 24, 2026. This market is pricing an extremely narrow $1 band (85.00-85.99) with just 8% implied probability, generating an absurd 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side—a clear sign of illiquidity rather than genuine edge, with only $310.71 in 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread.
Analysis
This market is pricing an extremely narrow $1 band (85.00-85.99) with just 8% implied probability, generating an absurd 100,000% implied yield on the Yes side—a clear sign of illiquidity rather than genuine edge, with only $310.71 in 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread. The price has been flat at 2¢ for seven days despite the market closing in one week, suggesting minimal trading interest and potential cliff risk (index of 32) as expiration approaches. WTI would need to land in this specific 1.4% range of current prices, making this a speculative bet rather than a liquid prediction market.
Resolution rules
If the front-month settle price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate oil on April 24, 2026 is between $85.00 and 85.99, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWTIW-26APR24-B85.5 yes 100