Will Vince George be the Democratic nominee for WV-01?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Vince George be the Democratic nominee for WV-01?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows zero liquidity with no volume or open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a genuine probability estimate.
Analysis
This market shows zero liquidity with no volume or open interest, making the 0¢ price unreliable as a genuine probability estimate. The 7¢ spread and extreme 396.4% implied yield on the Yes side suggest the market lacks sufficient trading activity to establish meaningful odds, particularly given the 566-day timeframe until resolution. With a Cliff Risk Index of 6 and neutral regime, this appears to be a nascent market awaiting participant interest rather than reflecting informed consensus on Vince George's nomination prospects.
Resolution rules
If Vince George wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 WV-01 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWVPRIMARY-01D26-VGEO yes 100