Will Stephanie Spears Tomana be the Democratic nominee for WV-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 14% probability that Will Stephanie Spears Tomana be the Democratic nominee for WV-02?. This contract trades at 14¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This illiquid market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes positions offering a 1010.9% implied yield versus just 4.1% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Tomana's nomination chances or minimal conviction from traders.
Analysis
This illiquid market shows extreme yield asymmetry, with Yes positions offering a 1010.9% implied yield versus just 4.1% for No, suggesting significant underpricing of Tomana's nomination chances or minimal conviction from traders. The 7¢ bid-ask spread is substantial relative to the 10¢ price, and zero 24-hour volume combined with only $2,151 open interest indicates this contract struggles to attract participants despite over 18 months until the 11/3/2027 close. The recent price movement from 4¢ to 6¢ (a 50% increase) warrants scrutiny—it could reflect genuine information about Tomana's campaign momentum or simply reflect thin-market volatility given the negligible trading activity.
Resolution rules
If Stephanie Spears Tomana wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 WV-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWVPRIMARY-02D26-STOM yes 100