Will Steven Wendelin be the Democratic nominee for WV-02?
Prediction markets currently give a 17% probability that Will Steven Wendelin be the Democratic nominee for WV-02?. This contract trades at 17¢ on Kalshi, closing November 3, 2027. This market shows extreme volatility with the price collapsing 52% over seven days (from 33¢ to 16¢), suggesting either new negative information about Wendelin's candidacy or a broader shift in market sentiment toward his nomination chances.
Analysis
This market shows extreme volatility with the price collapsing 52% over seven days (from 33¢ to 16¢), suggesting either new negative information about Wendelin's candidacy or a broader shift in market sentiment toward his nomination chances. The 338.8% implied yield on the Yes side is exceptionally high relative to the 566-day time horizon, indicating either significant mispricing or substantial tail risk that the market is pricing in. With only $2,052 in open interest and zero 24-hour volume despite the sharp recent move, liquidity is dangerously thin, making the current 17¢ price potentially unreliable for serious position-taking.
Resolution rules
If Steven Wendelin wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 WV-02 House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXWVPRIMARY-02D26-SWEN yes 100