Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.90 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 2% probability that Will XRP trimmed mean be above $1.90 by 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 2¢ on Kalshi, closing May 1, 2026. This market shows extreme mispricing with a 49,226% implied yield on the Yes side versus only 136.4% on the No side, suggesting the 9¢ price severely undervalues XRP reaching $1.90 by April 30, 2026—a move requiring roughly 185% appreciation from current levels.
Analysis
This market shows extreme mispricing with a 49,226% implied yield on the Yes side versus only 136.4% on the No side, suggesting the 9¢ price severely undervalues XRP reaching $1.90 by April 30, 2026—a move requiring roughly 185% appreciation from current levels. The realized volatility of 13,405% and cliff risk index of 19 indicate this is a highly speculative contract with substantial tail risk, while the modest $1,663.90 in 24-hour volume and $3,663 open interest reveal thin liquidity that may explain the apparent mispricing. With 14 days to expiry and a recent price movement from 3¢ to 5¢, this contract appears to be experiencing taker-driven volatility (0.636 regime score) with information arriving at 1.4 events per hour, suggesting active repricing as new catalysts emerge.
Resolution rules
If the price of XRP after issuance and through 11:59 PM ET on Apr 30, 2026 is ever above $1.90, then the market resolves to Yes.
Regime
Trade
sf trade KXXRPMAXMON-XRP-26APR30-190 yes 100