Will the Democratic Party win the AL-06 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 2098.6% implied yield on the Yes side versus just 15.9% on the No side, reflecting the 8¢ price in a heavily Republican-leaning district where Democrats face long odds. The $18.6K open interest combined with zero 24-hour volume suggests illiquidity and potentially stale pricing, making the quoted spread of just 1¢ potentially misleading given the difficulty of actually executing trades. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a low-conviction market where the extreme yield differential may not represent genuine edge but rather thin order books and limited price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade