Will Will Boyd win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Will Boyd win the 2026 Alabama Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing May 19, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13,250 in open interest, suggesting trapped positions rather than active trading.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $13,250 in open interest, suggesting trapped positions rather than active trading. The 3¢ price implies only a 3% probability for Boyd, yet the absurdly high implied yield of 36,911% on the Yes side and realized volatility of 1,891% indicate severe mispricing or a thin market vulnerable to manipulation. With just 32 days until resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this contract faces significant execution risk, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for serious trading.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Alabama, scheduled to take place on May 19, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Alabama Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Alabama Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x9e11f2782118d00c70f96814ec9486035655b99ad8a62a7a2c6aa2faab2379f8 yes 100