Will Sheldon Riley win American Idol Season 24?
0xc2b3262bbd7dfbfb34e50e764c5ee22fe1fa749e8a8cb2891780bf551c853ff0 · closes May 11, 2026 · 26 days remaining
Price
Indicator Stack
| Indicator | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| IY (Yes) | 45842.4% | Annualized return if held to expiry, computed from the YES side |
| IY (No) | 43.8% | Annualized return on the NO side |
| CRI | 32 | Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market is approaching resolution |
| EE | — | Event Overround — sum of YES prices across sibling outcomes |
| Overround | 0.4% | Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family |
| LAS | — | Liquidity Availability Score — null when ticker is outside the warm cron top 500 |
| CVR | — | Contagion Velocity Rate — null when not in warm cron |
| RV | 16469% | Realized Volatility — annualized stddev of returns from 48h price history |
| VR | 7.44 | Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead |
| IAR | 4.7/h | Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h window) |
| Adj IY | 45842% | Risk-Adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets (low VR) and high friction (high LAS) |
| Residual VR | — | VR minus expected VR from scheduled catalysts. Positive = market knows something calendar doesn't |
LAS / CVR are null because this market is outside the warm-regime cron's top 500 by 24h volume. Coverage is sparse by design.
7-Day History
365 indicator snapshots · 3 regime snapshots
Regime Snapshot
About this market
The season finale of American Idol is scheduled for May 11, 2026. This market will resolve according to the individual who wins Season 24 of American Idol. If for any reason no winner is declared by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for winner, this market will resolve in favor of the contestant whose name comes first in alphabetical order. The resolution source for this market will be the live broadcast of the show, American Idol, and ABC.
How to trade
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Or with the sf CLI: sf trade 0xc2b3262bbd7dfbfb34e50e764c5ee22fe1fa749e8a8cb2891780bf551c853ff0 yes 100