Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in April 2026?

This market displays extreme mispricing with a 9,443% implied yield on YES despite a narrow 0.04°C temperature band and only 24 days to resolution, suggesting the 12¢ price significantly undervalues the probability given April 2026 data will be available within weeks. The 9¢ spread and modest $2M open interest indicate low liquidity typical of niche climate brackets, while the 1.71 volatility ratio and 1,461% realized volatility reflect uncertainty around exact temperature measurement rather than fundamental disagreement on whether this specific band will be hit. With neutral regime conditions and stable 7-day price action at 14¢ (contradicting the stated current 12¢), this appears to be either a data lag issue or a genuine repricing opportunity for informed traders betting on April 2026 temperature outcomes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

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