Will the Republican Party win the AR-02 House seat?

The market is pricing in a heavily favored Republican outcome at 88¢ with minimal trading activity ($0 in 24h volume), suggesting low liquidity despite $14.5M open interest. The extreme implied yield asymmetry—1,338.9% for No versus 24.9% for Yes—indicates the No position is severely mispriced or represents speculative tail risk, creating a notable arbitrage signal. With 200 days to expiry and a moderate Cliff Risk Index of 7, this appears to be a consensus market awaiting either new information or closer-to-election volatility to rebalance pricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade