Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will there be between 40 and 50 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on April 30?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. The 8¢ price implies only an 8% probability of 40-50 daily transits, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 35,255% annualized yield with just 14 days to expiry—a classic deep out-of-the-money skew that suggests either severe underpricing or market consensus that this outcome is genuinely unlikely.
Analysis
The 8¢ price implies only an 8% probability of 40-50 daily transits, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 35,255% annualized yield with just 14 days to expiry—a classic deep out-of-the-money skew that suggests either severe underpricing or market consensus that this outcome is genuinely unlikely. The extremely thin 24-hour volume of $9.07 against $11k open interest and a 6¢ spread indicates illiquidity that could amplify price swings, while the 1,400% realized volatility and high cliff risk (13) signal this market experiences sharp moves, potentially from geopolitical shocks affecting Hormuz shipping. With the neutral regime and modest 7-day price climb from 7¢ to 8¢, the market appears to be pricing in a baseline expectation well below 40 daily transits, making this a high-risk speculation on either a significant shipping surge or data anomaly by late April 2026.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for April 30, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by May 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to April 30, 2026, for which data is available. This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for April 30, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
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Trade
sf trade 0xc177484dab86c7fed3764706cd348ca1b6eebe4592ed10befc447e592ff4c135 yes 100