Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?
Prediction markets currently give a 5% probability that Will Jay Feely be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?. This contract trades at 5¢ on Polymarket, closing August 4, 2026. Jay Feely's odds at 3¢ reflect extremely low perceived viability as the AZ-05 Republican nominee, though the astronomical 10,825% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution indicates severe mispricing or illiquidity risk given the $0 24-hour volume and $10.7M open interest.
Analysis
Jay Feely's odds at 3¢ reflect extremely low perceived viability as the AZ-05 Republican nominee, though the astronomical 10,825% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution indicates severe mispricing or illiquidity risk given the $0 24-hour volume and $10.7M open interest. The 32 Cliff Risk Index and 2,028% realized volatility suggest this market has experienced sharp price swings despite the flat 7-day movement, signaling either thin liquidity or sporadic large trades that could distort the true probability estimate with 109 days until the August 4, 2026 primary.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
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Trade
sf trade 0x3d4334926a41b1aa5d5aad33c495f542aa4cfc80571767837b30920954d1fec4 yes 100