Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-06 House seat?

The Democratic contract has surged 24 percentage points over seven days to 72¢, reflecting significant recent conviction, though the $0 24-hour volume and modest $8,155 open interest suggest this rally occurred on minimal liquidity. The extreme 445% implied yield on the "No" side combined with a 737% realized volatility and 7.49 vol ratio indicates severe mispricing or thin-market distortion rather than genuine market consensus. With 201 days to expiry and a neutral regime, this market appears illiquid and potentially vulnerable to sharp reversals as more capital enters closer to the November 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade