Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-08 House seat?

This market shows extremely asymmetric risk with a 1121% implied yield on the Yes side versus 29.7% on the No side, suggesting the 14¢ price may significantly undervalue Democratic chances in AZ-08, though the zero 24-hour volume and $14.5M open interest indicate this is a relatively illiquid position. The 6 Cliff Risk Index and 200-day timeframe to the 2026 midterms create meaningful uncertainty, particularly given Arizona's recent competitive House dynamics and potential demographic shifts. The tight 1¢ spread and neutral regime score suggest the market lacks strong directional conviction despite the extreme yield differential, warranting caution before interpreting the low price as a reliable probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade