Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing April 30, 2026. The 8¢ price reflects an extremely low 8% probability of strait closure by April 30, 2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 30,609% annualized yield, suggesting severe mispricing or heavy skew toward No positions.
Analysis
The 8¢ price reflects an extremely low 8% probability of strait closure by April 30, 2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 30,609% annualized yield, suggesting severe mispricing or heavy skew toward No positions. With only $49,180 open interest and a 2¢ spread across 14 days remaining, liquidity is thin relative to the outsized yield, and the 469% realized volatility indicates this market has experienced dramatic swings despite the stable 7-day price action. The Cliff Risk Index of 12 and rapid 0.3/hour information arrival rate suggest geopolitical developments could rapidly reprrice this binary outcome, making the current pricing potentially vulnerable to sudden moves if Houthi disruptions intensify.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c , including both the chart and downloadable files.
Indicators
Regime
Edges (1)
Trade
sf trade 0xcd26bdb63b81dfcc5482c42e9372c8a46091b1de1123d2afefb83df83fe859fd yes 100