Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the April Meeting?

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely no-change scenario at just 2¢, implying the market expects the Bank of Russia to adjust rates with 98% confidence at its April meeting. The sharp 71% price collapse over seven days (from 7¢ to 2¢) suggests a significant shift in expectations, possibly driven by recent economic data or central bank communications. With only $2.3k in 24-hour volume against $18.8k open interest and just 6 days to expiry, liquidity is thin relative to positions, creating potential execution challenges and elevated cliff risk (32 score) as the market approaches resolution.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the change in the key rate resulting from the Bank of Russia’s April meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Russia after its April 24, 2026 meeting as listed on the official Bank of Russia calendar: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/dkp/cal_mp/#t13 This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Russia’s press release for their April 24, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the key rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

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