Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?
Prediction markets currently give a 10% probability that Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026?. This contract trades at 10¢ on Polymarket, closing October 1, 2026. Bitcoin reaching an all-time high by September 30, 2026 is priced at just 10¢, implying only a 10% probability despite over 16 months remaining until expiry.
Analysis
Bitcoin reaching an all-time high by September 30, 2026 is priced at just 10¢, implying only a 10% probability despite over 16 months remaining until expiry. The extreme 1,968% implied yield on the "Yes" side signals severe underpricing relative to the timeframe, though this is tempered by a high Cliff Risk Index of 9 and thin liquidity with only $624 in 24-hour volume. The flat 7-day price action and neutral regime suggest the market hasn't reacted to recent Bitcoin momentum, potentially creating an asymmetric opportunity if BTC continues its bull run trajectory.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x6123b5cc75c38ba9783f6c8ea260107b546c7d3454a8f9b5280c9921cc39f3d9 yes 100