Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be between 1.5% and 1.8%?

Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth market has collapsed 35 percentage points in seven days (from 57¢ to 37¢), suggesting a significant shift in expectations away from the 1.5-1.8% range, though the extreme 1394% implied yield on the Yes side and near-zero 24-hour volume indicate illiquidity and potential mispricing rather than genuine conviction. The 30¢ spread and 6.92 volatility ratio are notably wide, reflecting uncertainty, while the 2218% realized volatility and 5.8 info arrivals per hour suggest this market is highly reactive to incoming economic data on Brazil's growth trajectory. With 43 days to resolution and only $353k open interest, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than a well-established market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html

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Regime

Trade