Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.7%?
Prediction markets currently give a 3% probability that Will Brazil’s Q1 2026 GDP growth rate (YoY) be at least 2.7%?. This contract trades at 3¢ on Polymarket, closing May 29, 2026. Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth market has collapsed from 26¢ to just 3¢ over seven days, pricing in only a 3% probability of 2.7% YoY growth despite the country's recent economic trajectory suggesting this threshold is reasonably achievable.
Analysis
Brazil's Q1 2026 GDP growth market has collapsed from 26¢ to just 3¢ over seven days, pricing in only a 3% probability of 2.7% YoY growth despite the country's recent economic trajectory suggesting this threshold is reasonably achievable. The extreme 27,630% implied yield on the Yes side combined with near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) and a wide 5¢ spread indicates severe illiquidity and potential mispricing, with the market likely dominated by a small number of positions rather than genuine consensus. With 43 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 32, this appears to be a distressed or abandoned market where the price may not reflect fundamental expectations for Brazilian GDP growth.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to Brazil’s gross domestic product growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year (GDP at market prices, %) in the 1st quarter of 2026, as reported by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística’s (IBGE) System of Quarterly National Accounts release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for release on May 29, 2026. The GDP release and relevant statistics will be made available here: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/statistics/economic/national-accounts/17262-quarterly-national-accounts.html If the specified release is not published, this market will resolve based on the first published figure for the specified quarter’s GDP growth rate compared to the same quarter of the previous year. If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter. Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates compared to the same quarter of the previous year to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0xf1d4693f06745e15c30c382c7448ab77d08b128dfc76067ef596ab23807a47b9 yes 100