What is the current probability for "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 4¢ (4% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 254 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 3443.8% and 6.0% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that BTC price on Jan 1, 2027?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extraordinarily tight Bitcoin range ($95k-$99,999.99) at just 5% probability, generating a stunning 3,381.6% implied yield on the Yes side despite 259 days to expiry.

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4¢

Bid/Ask 4/4¢·Spread 0¢·Vol $3,537.44·OI $101,724.63·Closes Jan 1, 2027·254d remaining

KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B97500

Analysis

4d ago

This market is pricing an extraordinarily tight Bitcoin range ($95k-$99,999.99) at just 5% probability, generating a stunning 3,381.6% implied yield on the Yes side despite 259 days to expiry. The 1¢ spread and modest $1,590.92 daily volume suggest thin liquidity for such an extreme yield, while the 24 Cliff Risk Index indicates meaningful tail risk concentration near resolution. The asymmetric payoff structure—where No offers only 5.9% yield—reflects market skepticism that BTC will remain in this narrow band, though the neutral regime score suggests current conditions don't strongly contradict either outcome.

Resolution rules

If the simple average of the sixty seconds of CF Benchmarks' BRTI before 12 AM EST is between 95000.00-99999.99 at 12 AM EST on Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3443.8%

IY (No) 6.0%

Adj IY 1722%

CRI 24

Overround -0.1%

LAS 0.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3443.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	6.0%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1722%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:01:14 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXBTCY-27JAN0100-B97500 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →