Will the Democratic Party win the CA-21 House seat?

This market reflects an extremely lopsided Democratic lean in CA-21 with an 88% implied probability, yet the asymmetric yield structure—1,338.6% for No versus 24.9% for Yes—signals severe illiquidity and potential mispricing on the Republican side. The zero 24-hour volume combined with $14.2M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread suggests the market is largely frozen with few recent trades, making the high No-side yield more a reflection of thin liquidity than genuine opportunity. With 200 days to expiry and a neutral regime score, this appears to be a structurally imbalanced market where the Democratic consensus is priced in but difficult to trade against.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade