Will the Republican Party win the CA-33 House seat?

This market shows extreme asymmetry with a 7% Republican win probability but a staggering 2,425% implied yield on the Yes side versus only 13.7% on the No side, suggesting severe underpricing of the Republican position relative to fundamental odds. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $14M open interest and a 2¢ spread indicates low liquidity despite substantial capital at risk, creating potential execution challenges for traders. With 200 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, this appears to be a highly speculative position where the extreme yield reflects either significant model disagreement or illiquidity-driven mispricing rather than genuine probability assessment.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-33 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade