Will the Democratic Party win the CA-37 House seat?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $18,675 in open interest, suggesting the 94¢ price may not reflect true market consensus and could face significant repricing if volume materializes. The No side's implied yield of 2,859.8% is a red flag indicating minimal backing for a Republican win—likely just a handful of contracts at the 1¢ floor—making this a highly asymmetric bet tilted toward Democratic dominance in CA-37. With 200 days to expiration and a Cliff Risk Index of 16, the market has adequate time for price discovery, but the current pricing appears driven more by structural illiquidity than fundamental conviction about Democratic prospects.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

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