Will the Republican Party win the CA-37 House seat?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 2,859.6% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting the 6¢ price significantly undervalues Republican chances in CA-37, though the zero 24-hour volume raises questions about whether this reflects genuine market consensus or stale pricing. The $21.4K open interest and 2¢ spread indicate thin liquidity despite the long 200-day timeframe, and the recent price decline from 7¢ to 6¢ combined with a high cliff risk index of 16 suggests potential for sharp moves as the election approaches. With nearly 7:1 odds-ratio between the Yes and No implied yields, this market warrants scrutiny—either CA-37 is far more competitive than the current price implies, or the low liquidity is allowing the price to drift away from fundamentals.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-37 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

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