Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?

The 3¢ price reflects an extremely low probability of Sheinbaum's removal within 74 days, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 15,954% implied yield—a classic deep out-of-the-money asymmetry that attracts lottery-ticket speculators despite minimal liquidity at just $16.2k in 24h volume. The 32 Cliff Risk Index and neutral regime suggest this market is pricing in baseline political stability in Mexico, with the massive yield differential indicating the market is efficiently compensating for tail risk rather than signaling genuine instability. The zero spread and flat 7-day price action suggest consensus around the low-probability outcome, making this primarily a venue for hedging catastrophic political scenarios rather than a genuine prediction of near-term regime change.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Claudia Sheinbaum ceases to be President of Mexico for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Claudia Sheinbaum's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Claudia Sheinbaum and the government of Mexico; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade