Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?
Prediction markets currently give a 88% probability that Will Ned Lamont win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election?. This contract trades at 88¢ on Polymarket, closing August 11, 2026. The market prices Lamont as an overwhelming favorite at 88¢, reflecting his incumbent advantage, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (42.9% for Yes versus 2307% for No) suggest minimal liquidity on the No side with only $11.5M open interest and just $9.69 in 24-hour volume.
Analysis
The market prices Lamont as an overwhelming favorite at 88¢, reflecting his incumbent advantage, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (42.9% for Yes versus 2307% for No) suggest minimal liquidity on the No side with only $11.5M open interest and just $9.69 in 24-hour volume. The 103% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index of 7 indicate this market experiences sharp price swings despite the stable 7-day price action, warranting caution for contrarian bettors given the illiquid No position could face severe slippage.
Also on kalshi at 79¢(Δ +9¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Connecticut, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Connecticut Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Connecticut Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
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sf trade 0x08e4cea3c55ded3bb7d1ab771bb6c14d3963fac75fefd5b59c4f52dce6019a62 yes 100