Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?
Prediction markets currently give a 37% probability that Will Michael Katz be the Republican nominee for Senate in Delaware?. This contract trades at 37¢ on Polymarket, closing September 15, 2026. This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,263.94 open interest, making the 37¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning.
Analysis
This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $2,263.94 open interest, making the 37¢ price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The 392.5% implied yield on the Yes side and 14¢ spread are characteristic of thin markets where small trades can create outsized percentage moves, evidenced by the 169% realized volatility and recent 4¢ price decline over seven days. With 152 days to the September 2026 primary and a low info arrival rate of 0.4 per hour, this market lacks sufficient liquidity and data flow to confidently assess Katz's actual nomination odds.
Also on kalshi at 43¢(Δ -6¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Delaware. If no 2026 Delaware Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Delaware Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x7b43b562afcc2ee7e35bc22234f1ab8a35d84996a8ddcdd57a2f4842f5114e27 yes 100