What is the current probability for "Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 38¢ (38% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on May 14, 2026. 22 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 2687.3% and 1009.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?

Prediction markets currently give a 38% probability that Will Luxembourg advance through the second Eurovision Semi-Final?. This contract trades at 38¢ on Polymarket, closing May 14, 2026.

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38¢

Bid/Ask 36/39¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $0·OI $8,894.979·Closes May 14, 2026·22d remaining

0xf948ce3e0e967da64d87f8226c24ef7d824e75c651b4ce2d136ebfdaaa0dd938

7-day price61 snapshots · 4 regime

38¢38¢ current

Apr 836¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the countries whose candidates for Eurovision 2026 advance according to the results of the Eurovision Second Semi-Final, scheduled for May 14, 2026. If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to advance from the Eurovision 2026 Second Semi-Final based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No". If this competition is not held or no contestants advance by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of the Second Semi-Final for Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 2687.3%

IY (No) 1009.5%

Adj IY 2687%

CRI 2

RV 258%

VR 0.49

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	2687.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	1009.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2687%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	2	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	258%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.49	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	8.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

3¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:16:36 PM

Observability lowEvent type cultural

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xf948ce3e0e967da64d87f8226c24ef7d824e75c651b4ce2d136ebfdaaa0dd938 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

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