What is the current probability for "Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 78¢ (78% implied probability) on Polymarket. It closes on December 6, 2026. 228 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 45.2% and 567.6% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?"?

This market trades on Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction market. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 78% probability that Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?. This contract trades at 78¢ on Polymarket, closing December 6, 2026.

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78¢

Bid/Ask 77/78¢·Spread 1¢·Vol $2,116.854·OI $56,248.062·Closes Dec 6, 2026·228d remaining

0x9c4459a70fd67a346075c22a6b010b454794204f2f28d128983b9056fe8d64b5

7-day price21 snapshots · 34 regime

79¢78¢ current

Apr 974¢Apr 21

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Constructors’ Championship for the 2026 F1 season. This market will resolve as soon as the official results of the final scheduled race of the 2026 F1 season are known. In the case of a tie between multiple teams, this market will resolve according to the tiebreak procedure used by F1 to determine the 2026 F1 Constructors’ champion. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed team to win the 2026 F1 Constructors’ Championship based on the rules of F1 (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from contention), the corresponding market will resolve to “No.” If the F1 season is permanently canceled or has not been completed by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be information from F1.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 45.2%

IY (No) 567.6%

Adj IY 280%

CRI 4

Overround -0.0%

LAS 0.01

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	45.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	567.6%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	280%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.01	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

1¢

Computed

4/22/2026, 12:11:47 AM

Observability lowEvent type sports

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/22/2026, 12:08:18 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0x9c4459a70fd67a346075c22a6b010b454794204f2f28d128983b9056fe8d64b5 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →

Resolution rules

Indicators

Regime

Trade

Related concepts

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