Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 13% probability that Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 13¢ on Polymarket, closing July 29, 2026. The market is pricing only a 10% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, down from 12¢ a week ago, suggesting growing conviction that the Fed will either hold steady or cut by a different magnitude.
Analysis
The market is pricing only a 10% probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, down from 12¢ a week ago, suggesting growing conviction that the Fed will either hold steady or cut by a different magnitude. The extremely asymmetric implied yields (3167% for Yes vs 39.1% for No) combined with a high Cliff Risk Index of 9 indicates this is a binary outcome with minimal middle-ground pricing, creating outsized payoff potential for contrarian bettors. With $42.8M in open interest but only $4.7M in 24-hour volume and 104 days to expiry, liquidity is moderate relative to the position size, leaving room for price movement if macro conditions shift.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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sf trade 0x4ede078cae84a5877ac32d7fb48811e5c23549a1904b7df06ff7935c6d79d831 yes 100