Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Prediction markets currently give a 4% probability that Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?. This contract trades at 4¢ on Polymarket, closing July 29, 2026. The market is pricing in only a 4% probability of a 25 bps rate increase at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, implying markets expect the Fed to either hold steady or move in a different increment.
Analysis
The market is pricing in only a 4% probability of a 25 bps rate increase at the July 2026 FOMC meeting, implying markets expect the Fed to either hold steady or move in a different increment. The extremely high implied yield of 8,446% on the "Yes" side reflects the severe mispricing typical of tail-risk events, while the 24 Cliff Risk Index suggests meaningful uncertainty around resolution mechanics. With 104 days to expiry and $73.5M in open interest against just under $5M in daily volume, liquidity is moderate but the price has doubled from 2¢ to 4¢ over the past week, signaling a modest shift in conviction toward the rate-hike scenario.
Resolution rules
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's July 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for July 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their July meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
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Trade
sf trade 0xb5c0abeecb5502e6e8d83155c27819174d8317af3c425c3afc5a8c45257a3793 yes 100