Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely scenario—a pause followed by two consecutive cuts across April, June, and July FOMC meetings—at just 11¢, implying only an 11% probability despite the massive 2846% annualized yield on a "Yes" position. The sharp price decline from 17¢ to 11¢ over seven days combined with zero 24-hour volume and a high Cliff Risk Index of 8 suggests thin liquidity and potential difficulty exiting positions near expiration (104 days out). The extreme volatility metrics (realized vol of 2099%, vol ratio of 5.97) indicate this contract has experienced wild swings, likely reflecting shifting Fed expectations, though the current neutral regime score suggests markets are genuinely uncertain about the Fed's path despite the low absolute price.

Resolution rules

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: April 28-29; June 16-17; and July 28-29. A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting. If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other". Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered. The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm

Indicators

Regime

Trade