Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 18% probability that Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 18¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. Ecuador's 19¢ price reflects a modest 19% win probability for Group E, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 2192% on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $10.5M open interest contrasts sharply with just $1.39 in daily volume, suggesting the market lacks depth to support that yield calculation.
Analysis
Ecuador's 19¢ price reflects a modest 19% win probability for Group E, but the extraordinarily high implied yield of 2192% on the Yes side signals severe mispricing or illiquidity concerns—the $10.5M open interest contrasts sharply with just $1.39 in daily volume, suggesting the market lacks depth to support that yield calculation. The tight 1¢ spread and neutral regime mask underlying volatility (260% realized), and with 71 days to resolution and only 0.3 information arrivals per hour, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than an efficiently priced market.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0xe4fe66449f041a76388f0e525f40c4b1543b37577810cfe2747d7ca9ef19bb07 yes 100