Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Prediction markets currently give a 7% probability that Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?. This contract trades at 7¢ on Polymarket, closing June 27, 2026. Algeria's 7-cent price reflects a 7% win probability for Group J, but the 6,833% implied yield on the Yes side signals extreme mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion rather than genuine edge.
Analysis
Algeria's 7-cent price reflects a 7% win probability for Group J, but the 6,833% implied yield on the Yes side signals extreme mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion rather than genuine edge. The $14.95M open interest against just $101 in 24-hour volume indicates this is a stale, illiquid market where the price may not reflect current betting consensus—the 2-cent spread is deceptively tight given the low trading activity. With 71 days to expiry and a realized volatility of 1,583%, this market is highly unstable and likely to see sharp repricing once meaningful volume arrives closer to the tournament.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026. If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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sf trade 0xa7b34c55da0fcd45908bbc802c5fbd5f650e9b4dbb8639bfcd32baee8c62e243 yes 100