Will the Democratic Party win the FL-03 House seat?

The Democratic position in FL-03 is priced at an extremely depressed 12¢, implying a 1338% annualized yield on a Yes position—a stark outlier suggesting either severe mispricing or that the seat is considered safely Republican. With zero 24-hour volume despite $15.7M open interest and a tight 1¢ spread, the market appears illiquid and potentially stale, raising questions about whether the 12¢ price reflects genuine consensus or simply the last trade executed. The elevated Cliff Risk Index of 7 combined with 200 days to expiry warrants caution, as late-breaking political developments in this swing-state district could trigger sharp repricing if Democratic fundamentals shift materially.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Indicators

Regime

Trade